Evaluation of factors affecting rice prices in the world

Document Type : Review Paper

Authors

1 Research Associate Professor, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Rice Research Institute of Iran, Rasht, Iran

2 Ph.D. Graduate, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Rice Research Institute of Iran, Rasht, Iran

Abstract

Introduction: Rice is a valuable food commodity in the world, most of which is produced and consumed in Asian countries, plays an important role in providing the required calories compared to other foods especially for Asian people. This valuable cereal grain has experienced significant price fluctuations over the past years due to various factors, which has limited its availability to consumers, especially in poor countries. The aim of this review-analytical study was to assess the factors affecting the fluctuations in rice prices in the world in different periods from 1970 to 2025, and to study the trend of rice prices changes in the years when rice experienced the highest prices in the world.

Materials and Methods: In this review-analytical study, fluctuations in rice prices in the world from 1990 to 2025 and their various reasons have been examined and analyzed based on reliable scientific references.
 
Results and Discussion: The results of this study showed that the highest rice prices were recorded during the crisis years of 2008, 2013, 2021, 2023 and 2024, the reasons of which can be considered a result of a combination of natural factors and social activities. On the one hand, climate hazards such as successive droughts (in 2006 and 2007), destructive storms (in 2007, and hurricane narcissus in 2013), abnormal cold (in 2008), and the El Niño phenomenon (in 2023 and 2024) were directly associated with a decrease in rice yields and supplies in key producing countries. On the other hand, several human and economic factors also played a role in exacerbating this crisis, including the increase in the prices of vital inputs such as oil, fertilizers and pesticides at critical times (2008 and 2021), geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in the global supply chain. Meanwhile, the political reaction of some major producers, especially the imposition of export restrictions by India, the world’s largest rice exporter, as an aggravating factor, had a direct impact on the global market. The gradual impact of long-term structural factors such as the shift in consumption patterns towards protein has also added to the complexity of the demand equation. The results of these multiple drivers led to a reduction in global reserves, supply constraints, and ultimately an increase in rice prices during these specific periods. Among these years, 2008 was the price crisis point for cereals, especially rice. Although rice prices have also increased after that, 2008 can be considered as the critical point of rice prices, which has experienced a price jump.
 
Conclusion: Rice price have greatly fluctuated since 1970 and it’s trend have been upward. Drought, storms, floods, the Russia-Ukraine war, COVID-19, export bans, rising fuel prices, the dollar’s depreciation against the euro, and changes in the diets of developing countries can be introduced as the most important factors affecting the increase in rice prices. Therefore, rice-importing countries, including Iran, should have appropriate and comprehensive planning to increase local rice production and reduce imports on the agenda.

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Main Subjects

References

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Cereal Research
Volume 15, Issue 4 - Serial Number 57
December 2025
Pages 331-349

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