Evaluation of factors affecting rice prices in the world

Introduction
Rice is a valuable food commodity in the world, most of which is produced and consumed in Asian countries, plays an important role in providing the required calories compared to other foods especially for Asian people. The importance of rice and its nutritional role in the world have made it a special place in the food security of consumer countries as a food supplier. This valuable cereal grain has experienced significant price fluctuations over the past years due to various factors, which has limited its availability to consumers, especially in poor countries. Since the strategic rice reserves in the world are limited, fluctuations and increases in rice prices are important. Therefore, governments, research and study centers, and rice producers should pay special attention to the trend of rice price changes. The objective of this review-analytical article was to evaluate the factors affecting the fluctuations in rice prices in the world in different periods from 1970 to 2025, as well as to study the trend of rice prices changes in the years when rice experienced the highest prices in the world.
 
Research findings
The results of this study showed that the highest rice prices were recorded during the crisis years of 2008, 2013, 2021, 2023 and 2024, the reasons of which can be considered a result of a combination of natural factors and social activities. On the one hand, climate hazards such as successive droughts (in 2006 and 2007), destructive storms (in 2007, and hurricane narcissus in 2013), abnormal cold (in 2008), and the El Niño phenomenon (in 2023 and 2024) were directly associated with a decrease in rice yields and supplies in key producing countries. On the other hand, several human and economic factors also played a role in exacerbating this crisis, including the increase in the prices of vital inputs such as oil, fertilizers and pesticides at critical times (2008 and 2021), geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in the global supply chain. Meanwhile, the political reaction of some major producers, especially the imposition of export restrictions by India, the world’s largest rice exporter, as an aggravating factor, had a direct impact on the global market. In addition, the gradual impact of long-term structural factors such as the shift in consumption patterns towards protein has also added to the complexity of the demand equation. Therefore, it was the results of these multiple drivers that ultimately led to a reduction in global reserves and supply constraints, and consequently an increase in rice prices during these specific periods. Among the mentioned years, 2008 was the point of the price crisis in cereals, especially rice. Although rice prices have also increased after that, 2008 can be considered as the critical point of rice prices, which has experienced a price jump.
 
Conclusion
Rice price have greatly fluctuated since 1970 and it’s trend have been upward. Drought, storms, floods, COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, export bans, rising fuel prices, the dollar’s depreciation against the euro, and changes in the diets of developing countries and a greater preference for protein over grains can be identified as the most important natural, social, and economic factors affecting the reduction in rice yields and supply, and the increase in rice prices. Therefore, rice-importing countries, including Iran, should have appropriate and comprehensive planning to increase local rice production and reduce imports on the agenda.