Study on the possibility of wheat Fusarium head blight predicting based on weather and cultural conditions

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor of Plant Protection Research, Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center, Golestan Province, Gorgan, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Plant Protection Research, Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center, Mazandaran Province, Sari, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Plant Protection Research, Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center, Ardabil Province, Ardabil, Iran

Abstract

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is one of the most important diseases of wheat that is a suitable disease for forecasting. In order to determine the statistical relationship among disease occurrence and weather and crop variables, this study was conducted in Golestan, Mazandaran and Ardabil provinces during 3 years (crop years 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19). Crop characteristics and disease severity were recorded in wheat fields around meteorological stations. Nine weather data was received from the stations as daily data and converted to 30 periodic variables. Integrating flowering start date and anthesis length in different years and regions calculated as 11 time and meteorological calendar variables and used in statistical analyses. Results of correlation tests of these variables with disease showed that the best window for disease prediction was B020 (20 days before anthesis) and ATX (average of maximum temperature), RD (number of rainy days), DD (number of dry days), ASHTR (average of special hydrothermal ratio) and NP80 (number of days with rain and relative humidity > 80%) showed the highest correlation with disease. Results of logistic regression and discriminant analysis for the selected variables as one, two and three showed that ATX was the best individual variable, and the best combination of two variables was ATX + NP80 and adding ASHTR to them did not cause significant increase in prediction efficacy. Therefore, logistic regression and discriminant analysis model of ATX and NP80 in 20 days before anthesis, introduced as the best model for forecasting wheat FHB.

Keywords

References

Abedi-Tizaki, M. 2016. Study on population structure, genetic diversity and spatial distribution of mycotoxin contamination of Fusarium graminearum isolated from wheat in the north and west of Iran. Ph. D. Dissertation. BU-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran. (In Persian).##Aghajani, M.A. 2008. Spraying the wheat field after the anthesis. Extension of Plant Protection
3: 68-69. (In Persian).##Aghajani, M. A., Forotan, A. and Kazemi, H. 2016. Management of Fusarium head blight of wheat. Applied Instruction. Iranian Research Institute of Plant Protection. (In Persian).##De Wolf, E. D., Madden, L. V. and Lipps, P. E. 2003. Risk assessment models for wheat Fusarium head blight epidemics based on within-season weather data. Phytopathology 93: 428-435.##De Wolf, E., Lipps, P., Miller, D., Knight, P., Molineros, J., Francl, L., and Madden, L. V. 2004. Evaluation of prediction models for wheat Fusarium head blight in the US. In: Canty, S. M., Boring, T., Versdahl, K., Wardwell, J. and Ward, R. W. (Eds.). Second International Symposium on Fusarium Head Blight Incorporating the 8th European Fusarium Seminar. Michigan State University, Orlando, FL, USA.##Ireta, M. J. and Gilchrist, S. 1994. Fusarium head scab of wheat (Fusariu graminearum Schwabe). CIMMYT, Mexico, D.F.##Kokcheli, H., Aghajani, M. A. and Dehghan, M. A. 2013. The effect of different fungicides and spraying times on Fusarium head blight of wheat. M. Sc. Dissertation. Damghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Damghan, Iran. (In Persian).##Kriss, A. B., Paul, P. A. and Madden, L. V. 2010. Relationship between yearly fluctuations in Fusarium head blight intensity and environmental variables: A window-pane analysis. Phytopathology 100: 784-797.##Kriss, A. B., Paul, P. A., Xu, X., Nicholson, P., Doohan, F. M., Hornok, L., Rietini, A., Edwards, S. G. and Madden, L. V. 2012. Quantification of the relationship between the environment and Fusarium head blight, Fusarium pathogen density, and mycotoxins in winter wheat in Europe. European Journal of Plant Pathology 133: 975-993.##Madden, L. V., Lipps, P. E. and Wolf, E. D. 2004. Developing forecasting systems for Fusarium head blight. In: Canty, S. M., Boring, T., Versdahl, K., Wardwell, J. and Ward, R. W. (Eds.). Second International Symposium on Fusarium Head Blight Incorporating the 8th European Fusarium Seminar. Michigan State University, Orlando, FL, USA.##Mazhari, M. 2016. Study of temperature on mycelial growth of wheat scab agent (Fusarium graminearum) by statistical models. M. Sc. Dissertation. Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. (In Persian).##Moschini, R. C., Pioli, R., Carmona, M. and Sacchi, O. 2001. Empirical prediction of wheat head blight in the northern Argentinean pampas region. Crop Science 41: 1541-1545.##Rossi, V., Giosuè, S., Pattori, E., Spanna, F. and Vecchio, A. D. 2003. A model estimating the risk of Fusarium head blight on wheat. EPPO Bulletin 33: 421-425.##Safaei, N. and Alizadeh, A. 2006. Evaluation of temporal progress models of Fusarium head blight diseases of wheat and presenting a forecasting model in Golestan province. Iranian Journal of Plant Diseases 42: 597-617. (In Persain with English Abstract).##Shah, D. A., De Wolf, E. D., Paul, P. A. and Madden, L. V. 2014. Predicting Fusarium head blight epidemics with boosted regression trees. Phytopathology 104: 702-714.##Shah, D. A., Molineros, J. E., Paul, P. A., Willyerd, K. T., Madden, L. V. and De Wolf, E. D. 2013. Predicting Fusarium head blight epidemics with weather-driven pre- and post-anthesis logistic regression models. Phytopathology 103: 906-919.##van Maanen, A. and Xu, X. M. 2003. Modelling plant disease epidemics. European Journal of Plant Pathology 109: 669-682.##Xu, X. 2003. Effects of environmental conditions on the development of Fusarium ear blight. European Journal of Plant Pathology 109: 683-689.##
Cereal Research
Volume 11, Issue 3
December 2021
Pages 225-241

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics