Evaluation of factors affecting rice prices in the world

Introduction
Rice is a valuable food commodity in the world, most of which is produced and consumed in Asian countries. It plays an important role in providing the required calories among other foods for Asian people. The price of this valuable grain has fluctuated greatly over the past years due to various environmental and human factors, limiting access for consumers, especially in poor countries. This article aims to examine the factors affecting the fluctuations in rice prices in the world in different periods, from 1970 to 2025, as well as the trend of fluctuating rice prices in the years when rice experienced the highest price in the world. The research method is a review-analytical type. The results of the studies conducted show that the highest price trend in the years 2008, 2013, 2021, 2023, and 2024 is affected by two factors: natural and human factors, which have caused the price trend to increase in these years. Since strategic rice reserves in the world are limited, fluctuations and increases in rice prices are important and governments, rice research and study centers, and producers should pay special attention to it.
 
Research findings
The importance of rice and its nutritional role in the world have made it a special place in the food security of consumer countries as a food supplier. This valuable food has experienced different price fluctuations in the world, affected by various factors.The highest rice prices in the crisis years of 2008, 2013, 2021, 2023 and 2024 can be considered the result of a combination of natural and social factors. On the one hand, climate hazards such as successive droughts (2006 and 2007), destructive storms (2007, Narcissus and 2013), abnormal cold in 2008, and the El Niño phenomenon in 2023 and 2024 were directly associated with a decrease in rice yields and supplies in key producing countries. On the other hand, several human and economic factors also played a role in exacerbating this crisis, including the increase in the prices of vital inputs such as oil, fertilizers and pesticides at critical times (2008 and 2021), geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in the global supply chain. Meanwhile, the political reaction of some large producers, especially the imposition of export restrictions by India as the world's largest exporter, as an aggravating factor, had a direct impact on the global market. Finally, the gradual impact of long-term structural factors such as the shift in consumption patterns towards protein has also added to the complexity of the demand equation. Therefore, it was the intersection of these multiple drivers that ultimately led to the reduction in global reserves, supply constraints and the rise in rice prices during these specific time periods. Among the mentioned years, 2008 was the point of the price crisis in cereals, especially rice, which experienced the highest prices compared to previous years. Although rice prices continued to rise after that, 2008 was the crisis point for rice prices, when they experienced a price spike.
 
Conclusion
The price of rice has fluctuated a lot since 1970 and its trend has been upward. Some natural crises such as drought, storms and floods have been very effective in this regard. On the other hand, the decline in the dollar against the euro, changes in the diet of developing countries and the tendency to consume more protein than grains, Covid-19, the war between Russia and Ukraine have also been the most important factors affecting the decrease in rice yield and the increase in price. On the other hand, the ban on exports, the increase in fuel prices, changes in diet and war have been other important factors in the increase in rice prices from all human factors. Therefore, rice importing countries, including Iran, should have a plan to increase domestic rice production and reduce imports on the agenda.