شبیه سازی تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر رشد ذرت و بررسی امکان تخفیف اثر منفی آن با تغییر تاریخ کاشت در مغان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار پژوهش، مؤسسه تحقیقات اصلاح و تهیه نهال و بذر، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، کرج، ایران

چکیده

برنامه­ریزی مناسب و تعیین راه­­کارهای افزایش سازگاری گیاهان زراعی به تغییر احتمالی اقلیم، نیازمند شناخت دقیق روند رفتار عوامل اقلیمی و نحوه پاسخ گیاهان زراعی به این تغییرات است. بدین­منظور، مطالعه حاضر با هدف شبیه­سازی آثار تغییر اقلیمبر مراحل فنولوژیک و عملکرد دانه ذرت هیبرید سینگل کراس 647 و بررسی امکان تعدیل آثار منفی تغییر اقلیم بر تولید ذرت با تغییر تاریخ کاشت به­عنوان یک راه­کار مدیریتی در منطقه مغان انجام گرفت. برای شبیه­سازی پارامترهای اقلیمی و ایجاد فصل رشد احتمالی برای سه دوره زمانی 2025، 2055 و 2085 تحت دو مدل گردش عمومیHadCM3 وIPCM4با سه سناریویA1B،B1وA2 از مدل مولد اقلیم LARS-WG و برای شبیه­سازی رشد ذرت از مدلAquaCropاستفاده شد. نتایج ارزیابی مدل LARS-WG نشان داد که این مدل پارامترهای اقلیمی و فصل رشد احتمالی را به­طور مناسب شبیه­سازی کرد. نتایج شبیه­سازی رشد ذرت با مدل AquaCropنیز مشخص کرد که طول دوره کاشت تا سبزشدن و گل­دهی، طول دوره پرشدن دانه و طول دوره رسیدگی فیزیولوژیک ذرت تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم در بیشتر سناریوهای مورد استفاده کاهش یافت. هم­چنین عملکرد ذرت تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم طی سه دوره آینده، از 4/4 تا 30درصد نسبت به شرایط کنونی کاهش می­یابد. به­منظور کاهش اثر منفی تغییر اقلیم از استراتژی تغییر کاشت استفاده و نتایج شبیه­سازی نشان داد که در سال 2025، کاشت ذرت در حوالی26 فروردین (زودتر از تاریخ کاشت کنونی یعنیدهه سوم اردیبهشت) باعث تولید عملکرد بالاتری نسبت به سایر تاریخ­های کاشت (11 فروردین و 10 اردیبهشت) و در سال­های 2055 و 2085 تاریخ­های کاشت 11 و 26 فروردیندر شرایط تغییر اقلیم مناسب­تر خواهند بود. بر اساس نتایج این تحقیق، به­نظر می­رسد کهبتوان از استراتژی مدیریت تاریخ کاشت به­عنوان یک راه­کار مناسب برای تعدیل آثار منفی تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد ذرت استفاده کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The mitigation of climate change effect on maize grain yield by changing of planting date in Moghan

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammadreza Shiri
Research Assist. Prof., Seed and Plant Improvement Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Appropriate planning and making strategies to increase crop adaptation to possible future climate change requires a good understanding of the trend of climate factors and response of the crops to climate changes. Therefore, this study was conducted tosimulate the climate change effects on phenological stages and grainyield of maize hybrid SC 647 and to explore the possibility of employing planting dates asmitigating options to decrease the climate change impacts on maize production in Moghan region, Ardabil, Iran. LARS-WG model wasused to simulate the climatic parameters as one stochastic growing season under two types of General Circulation Models ((UnitedKingdom Met. Office Hadley Center: HadCM3) and (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace: IPCM4)) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) for three periods including 2025, 2055 and 2085. Aqua crop model was used to simulate maize growth. The results of modelevaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters and simulation of stochastic growing season in future climate change conditions. The simulation of phenological stages by AquaCrop model showed that the period from planting to emergence and flowering, grain filling period and maturity were reduced in majority of scenarios under climatechange. The results indicated that the grain yield of maize may be reduced 4.4% to 30% as affected by climate change based on common planting date in baseline. In order to reduce the negative impact of climate change, the strategy of changing planting date was used. The results of simulation showed that earlier planting date near 15 April (earlier than the current planting date, the second ten days of May) caused higher yield compared with other planting dates (30 April and 31 March) in 2025. In 2055 and 2085, However, the planting date of 31 March and 15 April in terms of climate change will be more appropriate. It seems thatmanagement of planting dates can be regarded as appropriate approach to reduce adverse effects of climate change on the grain yield of maize.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate scenarios
  • AquaCropModel
  • LARS-WG Model
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