ارزیابی وجود رابطه علی بین توسعه مکانیزاسیون و تولید شلتوک در استان گیلان: کاربرد سری داده های ترکیبی و الگوی علیت- گرنجری

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران

چکیده

توسعه مکانیزاسیون در فرایندتولید برنج می­تواند نقش شایان توجهی در غلبه بر دشواری­های تولید این محصول مهم و محدودیت­های اقلیمی و زمانی زراعت داشته باشد. بهبود وضعیت درآمدی کشاورزان، افزایش تولید و آثار رفاهی مثبت بر بازار برنج از نتایج مهم توسعه مکانیزاسیون و کشت مکانیزه شلتوک محسوب می­شود. طی سال­های اخیر انواع ماشین­آلات کشاورزی فعال در زراعت برنج در شهرستان­های 16 گانه استان گیلان افزایش قابل ملاحظه­ای یافته است. پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیل علیت-گرنجری و کاربرد سری داده­های ترکیبی مربوط به 16 شهرستان برای 16 سال (95-1380)، با هدف ارزیابی محرک­بودن تعداد انواع ماشین­آلات فعال شاملتراکتور،تیلر،نشاکار،وجین­کن، دروگر،خرمنکوبپشت­تیلری،خرمنکوبپشت­تراکتوری و کمباین بر تولید شلتوک در شهرستان­های مختلف استان گیلان انجام شد.نتایج حاصلنشاندادکهتعدادماشین­آلاتموردبررسی، علیتگرنجرتولیدشلتوکدرشهرستان­هایاستانگیلاناست.بیش­ترین و کم­ترین اثرگذاری انواع ماشین آلات مورد بررسی بر میزان تولید شلتوک به­ترتیب مربوط به خرمنکوب پشت­تراکتوری وتعداد وجین­کن بود. توجه به شدت اثرگذاری انواع ماشین­آلات کشاورزی بر میزان تولید شلتوک در شهرستان­های استان گیلان می­تواند چارچوبی مناسب برای برنامه­ریزی و اولویت­بندی توسعه مکانیزاسیون در زراعت برنج فراهم آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of causal relationship between mechanization development and paddy production in Guilan province:Application of panel data and Granger-casual model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Karim Motamed 1
  • Mohammad Kavoosi Kalashami 2
1 Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Agricultural Economic, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
2 Assist. Prof., Dept. of Agricultural Economic, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
چکیده [English]

The development of mechanization in the rice production process can play an important role in overcoming the difficulties of producing this product, climate and agricultural constraints. Improving farmer’s income status, increasing production and positive welfare effects on the rice market are important results of mechanization and paddy mechanized cultivation. In recent years, the number of agricultural machinery active in rice cultivation in the 16 cities of Guilan province has increased significantly. The present study use Granger-causal analysis and panel data series of 16 cities for 16 years from 2011 to 2016, following the evaluation of the stimulus of the number of active machines including tractors, two wheel tractor, transplanting machine, mower machine, threshing machine for two wheel tractors, threshing machine for tractors, cultivation machine and combine harvester on paddy production in different cities of Guilan province, Iran. The results showed that the number of different investigated machines were Granger cause of paddy production in Guilan province. The greatest influence of the types of machines studied on the amount of paddy production belongs to threshing machine for tractors and the least impact on the volume of production of this product belongs to the number of cultivation machine. Considering the severity of the impact of various types of agricultural machinery on the amount of rice production in the cities of Guilan province could provide a suitable framework for planning and prioritizing the development of mechanization in rice cultivation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • DH model
  • Rice cultivation
  • Mechanized cultivation
  • Farmer’s income status
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