ارزیابی پتانسیل تولید و خلأ عملکرد برنج در ایران با استفاده از مدل SSM-iCrop2

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

3 استاد، گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

برنج در رژیم غذایی مردم ایران از جایگاه ویژه­ای برخوردار است. برای تامین نیاز کشور لازم است تولید این محصول افزایش یابد که با توجه به محدودیت سطح زیر کشت، افزایش عملکرد در واحد سطح روش مناسب‌تری است. یکی از بهترین راه­ها برای افزایش تولید، کاهش خلاء عملکرد می­باشد. مطالعه حاضر با هدف برآورد خلاء عملکرد برنج در کشور در سال 1395 طراحی و اجرا شد. در این مطالعه، با استفاده از پروتکل اطلس جهانی خلاء عملکرد، مناطق اقلیمی و ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی مرجع تولید برنج در ایران تعیین شدند. ابتدا عملکرد واقعی برنج از آمارنامه کشاورزی کشور استخراج و سپس عملکرد پتانسیل در مناطق اصلی تولید این محصول با استفاده از مدل شبیه­سازی SSM-iCrop2 و داده‌های مربوط به آب و هوا، مدیریت و خاک برآورد شد. خلاء عملکرد از اختلاف بین عملکرد واقعی کشاورزان و عملکرد پتانسیل محاسبه شد. مقدار عملکرد واقعی برنج در مناطق اقلیمی اصلی تولید این محصول در کشور از 5/3 تا 2/5 تن در هکتار و عملکرد پتانسیل شبیه‌سازی شده از 3/6 تا 5/9 تن در هکتار برآورد شد. بنابراین میزان خلاء عملکرد از 1/2 تا 1/5 تن در هکتار متغیر بود. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که در صورت کاهش خلاء عملکرد برنج، میزان تولید این محصول را می­توان از 2 میلیون و 440 هزار تن به 4 میلیون و 103 هزار تن افزایش داد و بنابراین به خودکفایی در تامین برنج کشور دست یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of rice production potential and yield gap in Iran using SSM-iCrop2 model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saleh Keramat 1
  • Benyamin Torabi 2
  • Afshin Soltani 3
  • Ebrahim Zeinali 2
1 Ph. D. Student, Dept. of Agronomy, Faculty of Plant Production, Gorgan University of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
2 Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Agronomy, Faculty of Plant Production, Gorgan University of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
3 Prof. Ph. D. Student, Dept. of Agronomy, Faculty of Plant Production, Gorgan University of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Rice has a special role in the diet of Iranians. To meet the needs of the country, it is necessary to increase the production of this crop. Therefore, due to the limited cultivation area, increasing yield per unit area is a more appropriate method. One of the best methods to increase production is to reduce the yield gap. The present study was designed and conducted to estimate the rice yield gap in Iran in 2016. In this study, the climatic zones and reference weather stations of rice production in Iran were determined using the global yield gap atlas (GYGA) protocol. First, the actual yield of rice was extracted from the Iranian agricultural statistics. Then, potential yield in the main production areas of rice was estimated using the SSM-iCrop2 simulation model and management, soil and climatic data. Yield gap was calculated from the difference between the actual yield of farmers and potential yield. The actual yield of rice in the main climatic regions of this crop in Iran was estimated from 3.5 to 5.2 ton.ha-1 and the simulated potential yield from 6.3 to 9.5 ton.ha-1. Therefore, the yield gap varied from 2.1 to 5.1 ton.ha-1. The results of this study showed that if the yield gap of rice is reduced, its production can be increased from 2,440,000 tons to 4,103,000 tons and achieve the self-sufficiency in rice supply in the country.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Actual yield
  • Potential yield
  • Simulation
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